cook partisan voting index by state

Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, Professor of Law, Drexel University Thomas R. Kline School of Law@tabathaabuelhajView posts , Frank G. Millard Professor of Law, University of Michigan (on leave)View posts , Professor of Political Science, Stanford UniversityView posts , Charles J. Ogletree Jr. Read More Map For a single district, such as a CD, the best indicator is to look at numbers over a multi-cycle time frame for the office in question. Using both allows a comparison of short and medium term trends for a district at a glance. I think we should use a dual system of level (SVI) and parallel (Cook PVI). The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index was introduced as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of political districts and subdivisions using presidential and gubernatorial elections as a baseline. The calculations are based upon the two-party vote. The recognition was that they leaned Democratic (which they do). Calculations are rounded to the nearest whole percent within .5 a percentage point. Yeah. Following each election and round of redistricting, presidential results are compiled to generate PVI scores for each congressional district. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. & Mary L. Rev. The following errors occurred with your submission. And in the South particularly, the partisan trend may be Democratic at the state and local level and Repub at the national level. Then we can figure out how well our candidate did, versus their candidate. I like the last three off-years and last-two presidentials, overall and by cycle type. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index - Google News. NO. If the site uses only PVI, we overstate GOP strength based on the Bush 2004 GOTV operation which no longer exists and ignore the shift in party ID over the last few years. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. What we need is a way to estimate a sort of generic D vs. R matchup for each district (or state, or state senate/house district, or county, or town, or even precinct). Cooks PVI is merely a relative value even using the old data. Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame. 128.255.79.33 2020-23, 53 U.C. If certain, wed put them in the solid D or solid R bin, and if uncertain, wed still get an idea of how big the swing block is, and whether they lean D or R. Now, even if we do an abstract version of this, via polling, we (or anyone else) would still need to put in a ton of groundwork into gathering this data. A district or state that "performed within half a point of the national average in either direction" is designated as "Even". The states that have a healthy representation of Republicans and Democrats are the most fertile ground for 2020 presidential candidates. Bruce E. Cain, Wendy K. Tam Cho, Yan Y. Liu&Emily R. Zhang,A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, 59 Wm. Although, us also using PVI only is giving it undeserved credit. I live in a house thats over 40 years old that was constructed on somewhat marshy soil. A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). For example, the 2017 PVI incorporated vote data from the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections. The boldface sentences confirm my understanding of how PVI works. They were beans cheerfully returning to their wild and primitive state that I cultivated, and my hoe played the Ranz des Vaches for them.Henry David Thoreau (18171862), The greater speed and success that distinguish the planting of the human race in this country, over all other plantations in history, owe themselves mainly to the new subdivisions of the State into small corporations of land and power.Ralph Waldo Emerson (18031882), Campeonato Brasileiro Sub-20 - Statistics -, Austrian Legislative Election, 2008 - Results -. A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). (I guess I randomly grabbed that number because Ive been thinking about NY-20.) NC-02, NC-07, NC-08: Lowland southern rural districts where theres enough of a tradition of Yellow Dog Democratic voting plus a sizable African-American minority that Democrats can thrive downballot. But maybe I have completely the wrong end of the stick. We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? Presidential votes will be way off sometimes because of home-state advantage or other special circumstances. Lets hear your thoughts! The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. Does Cook have an explanation for why he uses this methodology? I think the SVI is better. Cook Partisan Voting Index The main feature of the Report is the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) . if you have a national election 0f 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but thats no excuse for sloppiness. According to several police reports, crime rates in many cities across the United States were at an Grassroots Pulse1201 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 600Washington, DC 20036info@grassrootspulse.com(202) 684-8254, How Strong is Party Loyalty in the States? The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. Look at 538- Nate didnt get so much play by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use. Colorado would decide the election, resulting in a 272-266 Democratic win or a 275-263 Republican win. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole., Professor of Law and Political Science 61, Anita S. Krishnakumar, Cracking the Whole Code Rule (February 19, 2020). i think whatever the methodology, it should include 08 numbers and drop out 00 numbers, otherwise its increasingly out of date. Hell, imagine how little the system would have worked after huge landslides like Reagans in 1984 and Nixons in 1972. Given that the data is already entered, we could also look at trends over time. The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation. Is the 118th Congress Headed for a Wreck? The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. Expect to see President Trump and his Democratic opponents spending lots of time in these states between now and November 2020. [1] [2] The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two Presidential elections. 1 COOK PARTISAN VOTING INDEX. To ensure consistency, all 2021 (pre-redistricting) and 2022 (post-redistricting) PVI scores cited in this report reflect the new formula. Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. In a few states, these results are aggregated by district by state and/or local election authorities. NY-20, NY-26: Northeastern suburban/rural districts where theres still a Rockefeller Republican tradition, esp. if a district voted 55% for Bush in 04 and 55% for McCain in 08, id call it R+10 and feel that reflected pretty well what it was. Then everyone will see which system proves the more accurate. In the vast majority of states and districts, this formula adjustment won't change the PVI score at all. The national values for 2004 are George W. Bush 51.2% and John Kerry 48.8%. Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. The best way to compare Cooks OPVI with Swing States SVI is run them side by side for an election cycle. [6], The Cook Political Report relies on presidential vote data to produce the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) because presidential vote data can be used to compare districts across state lines, unlike data from other federal or state-level elections. And after redistricting, the median House seat (Michigan's 8th CD) retains a modest skew of R+1, virtually unchanged from the old map. A district with R+6 went for McCain by 6%. These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become competitive. by Daniel P. Tokaji, Free & Fair with Franita and Foley I dont think Cooks PVI or this proposed SVI would be as useful a measurement as they could be. As younger people continue to move to cities for jobs in technology and other sectors, this trend appears likely to continue. 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 435 districts, 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. [1][2], The index is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. Using only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic uptick. If the site only uses SVI, then we are basing our read of the partisan breakdown on a single cycle in which the GOP ticket was headed by a guy their base did not much care for and did not have anywhere close to an even playing field in financial resources as the economy crumbled in spectacular fashion under a sitting president of his party. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, United States House of Representatives elections, 2020, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2016, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2012, United States presidential election, 2016, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=The_Cook_Political_Report%27s_Partisan_Voter_Index&oldid=8904365, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections. In the wake of the 2008 elections, SSPs pres-by-CD project has spurred a lot of discussion about how the PVI is calculated and why its calculated the way it is. The Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) is a measure of the partisan tendency of state legislative districts. 21-07, CLC on The Supreme Courts Role in the Degradation of U.S. Democracy, Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections, Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation. Should it be in addition to the PVI? [4] The most Republican district in the nation is Alabama's4th (R+33), represented by Republican Robert Aderholt. If we can approximate this data via some other measure, that would be quite useful. The Cook Political Reports Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. In fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and started calculating these numbers. House Map - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times, http://www.electiondataservices.com/r09wTables.pdf, Meat processing & products: Long-Term Contribution Trends | OpenSecrets. The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a political district or subdivision leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential and gubernatorial level compared to the state as a whole. But why should it be calculated this way? Introduced in 1997, The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) was developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata Inc.. Introduced in 1997, The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) was developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata Inc. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. Where the SVI number is more D than the PVI we see fertile ground. [1][2][a] The One Group That Can Stop Elon Musk from Unbanning Trump on Twitter, Facebook and Twitter Could Let Trump Back Online. Franita Tolson and Edward Foley. These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. The PVI was developed by Charles Cook, editor and publisher of Cook, and scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. these trends are going to continue and old numbers will miss the story. L. Rev. Particularly when many states arent contested by either candidate surely tv ads concentrated in swing states like Ohio and Florida are going to add artifacts to the PVI/SVI that isnt there in say Idaho or Massachusetts. Of course, my preference is an Excel sheet listing vote totals by office (prez, gov and CD) side-by-side over the last several cycles broken down by county. The PVI is determined by comparing each congressional district's presidential vote to the national presidential election results. But Hes Still a Danger. The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. The heavily Democratic parts of the country tend to be clustered in New England and along the West Coast. Before that, we go all the way back to 1964 for us and 1972 for them. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. Wolters Kluwer, 2020), Season 4, Episode 3 Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 2 Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 1 Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections . The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. Get more out of that than a PVI. In any event, for the 2010 cycle the basic flaw with SVI and PVI is each concentrates exclusively on presidential results. These states include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan. The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican P. Of course, nothing is completely cut and dry. TN-04: Appalachian rural district with a history of voting Democratic downballot (and upticket too until lately), but trending away from us fast at all levels. i think the biggest arguments against the old (00 and 04) PVIs is the demographic changes in these districts. So, Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI? 48 Florida State University Law Review 61 (2021), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. With the SVI (or Cooks PVI not including 2004), these districts would be R+5 and R+13, respectively, and we would be a center-right nation. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. 1521 (2018). 1225 (2018). How Effective is COVID-19 Economic Stimulus? For the most part, these will be more favorable to Dems, as the big Kerry minus Obama splits are removed from the equation. Several states in this region, including North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, only have one congressional district effectively making the PVI ranking statewide. The proposed SVI, comparing numbers within one election, doesnt solve this problem either. Off-year cycles are very different beasts when it comes to TO, especially in states which have their gubernatorial elections in Presidential years (and the usual problem of getting out Leap Year Dems generally). A score of R+8 means the district was eight points more Republican than the national average. (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. KISS. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state or district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. "The House is less 'elastic' than ever not just because the share of swing seats has cratered, but because voters are splitting their tickets less frequently. [4]. to the discussion. Using only SVI presumes a one-cycle result as the normal character of a district. SVI will average to 0, and PVI will not. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, often abbreviated as CPVI or simply PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole. St. Johns Legal Studies Research Paper No. I guess I dont see the value of seeing how much more republican or more demcoratic a district is than a national average. Why Higher Interest Rates are Dangerous for the United States, Four Key Lessons from the CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook, Interest May Cost Us a Record Amount of Money within 10 Years, Peaking Crime Rates Spur a Change in Anti-Police Attitudes. In the meantime, some have suggested computing an SVI a Swing State Project Voting Index, comparing 2004 to 2004 and 2008 to 2008. These are the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning. Oklahoma has five congressional districts ranging from R+10 to R+27. Leftblogistan needs to be a thought leader, not just a bunch of people typing away from their parents basements. I agree with the majority sentiment that it seems to make more sense to compare 2000 district performance with 2000 nationwide performance, not 2004 nationwide performance. Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 115th Congress The Cook Political Report Arranged by State/District. The least Republican-leaning states to have two Republican senators are Florida (R+3 PVI), represented by Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, and North Carolina (R+3 PVI), represented by Ted Budd and Thom Tillis. L. Rev. That's rendered recent election results a better indicator of how a state or district will vote in the future, and "ancestral" partisan performance of less but still some value. New Yorks 15th district, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44. Democratic support also comes from the areas around major cities. Please note that the formula has been tweaked since we last released the state PVI scores in 2021. But people are going to consider an R+7 district to be solidly Republican, even thought it barely went to Obama. Heres a case in point. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also in the process of drawing new congressional districts after accusations of partisan gerrymandering. Any reasons not to? But my training as an engineer says that we need to look at 2008 PVI side-by-side with 2008 SVI, understand which districts have more than a 5-point (arbitrary number) difference, and make a gut call on which data fits reality better. By the most stringent measure, the CPI was accurate in over 94% of legislative races. As we head into next years election, lets take a look at what we are likely to see based on how partisan the states really are. Obama MAY be able to improve for 2012 if he does really well, but this may be a once in a half-generation sorta thing. Im willing to convert to using the SVI exclusively. We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? There is no magic bullet, no algorithm which will tell us by plugging in data which district can be swung with a little effort. The same thing with Cooks PVI. One more election like the last two (hope, hope) and dealing with the Cook PVI will be like dealing with the grade in the Grand Canyon. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["DFSft"]={},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":421,"300":400,"400":400,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-DFSft"),window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("DFSft"==b)window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); Cook's 2017 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2016 election cycle:[6][14], Cook's 2013 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2012 election cycle:[4]. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a Perhaps lower-profile statewide offices may be useful. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. There are actually two PVI's calculated: one for each state, and a separate for each Congressional district. But on the other hand, Im getting kind of tired of PVI, as its just one dimension out of many in describing a district, and one we shouldnt fetishize more than we should. A district . Either way, PVI or SVI, you get a nice take on whether party nominee is overachieving or under-performing in comparison to the top of his/her ticket. While this can be skewed by differing perceptions of the parties at different levels of government (such as Democrats being popular locally in heavily conservative areas), this is nevertheless the basic idea behind Cooks Partisan Voting Index, on which our SSP PVI is based. On the one hand, I like having PVI (or something like it) because it lets you sum up a district in one number. Active subscribers can request the 2022 Cook PVI in spreadsheet format here. I also notice that, before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower and FDR, but also Hoover, won in landslides. Anyway, I like the idea of using both. Powers, privileges, procedure, committees, history, media, "The differences between real grassroots and "Astroturf" matter", "There are 119Republican House members who should be VERY nervous today", "The Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", "Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", Emergency Planning, Preparedness, and Operations, Scene at the Signing of the Constitution of the United States, First Reading of the Emancipation Proclamation of President Lincoln, George Washington and the Revolutionary War Door, Westward the Course of Empire Takes Its Way, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index&oldid=1133943458, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, All Wikipedia articles written in American English, Articles containing potentially dated statements from 2022, All articles containing potentially dated statements, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0. The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district average for the party nominee, compared to the 2004 national value for the party nominee. For example, we could try to average out the performance of candidates to that seat in the past, but seeing as we are trying to gauge exactly that, this would be a wolf-guarding-the-sheep situation. 20-0002, New York University Law Review, Forthcoming, Justin Levitt, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, __ N.Y.U. In the Senate, the most Republican-leaning state to have a Democratic senator is West Virginia (R+22 PVI), represented by Joe Manchin. At D+16, Vermont is the most Democratic state, though Washington, D.C., is substantially more partisan with a PVI value of D+43.[4]. 9, 2022, How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, Slate, Mar. So, I was thinking if we really want to go large, and contribute something to the broader blogosphere, that goes beyond a purportedly more accurate version of PVI, that really affects the larger conversation about what a district can and cant support, maybe we should try categorizing districts in terms of 20 or 25 typologies. I realize the point is to compare the district to the national average, but Im not sure how useful that information is when predicting whos going to win in a district. 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index. The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. Include the PVI in brackets afterward, but SVI just seems to make more sense. David Nir of the Swing State Project advocated a change to the new formula, and Charlie Cook agreed, wanting an "apples to apples" comparison. Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. That said, if you have any contact details for Charlie Cook or one of his confederates, Id be interested to hear a defence of his method. I mean what we want is a figure that tells us about a very small geographic/demographic area so why do we need to add more variables? Youre going to see a lot more of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger. That would make it a more accurate gauge of true feeling, and it would be relatively easy to do. In 2022, it was updated to weigh the most recent presidential election more heavily than the prior election. Although the House's pro-GOP skew didn't budge much either way as a result of new maps, the number of competitive seats declined. All Rights Reserved. Hardly a day hardly a post goes by here at the Swing State Project without a reference to the Cook Political Reports Partisan Vote Index, or PVI for short. One thing is to include the native son effect for POTUS and VPOTUS. Ideally, there should be a way of finding this out. * Includes an independent senator who caucuses with the Democrats. Quite a few people people had a hard time believing my explanation of the math behind the PVI. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the CPI compares the political leanings of voters in each state House and Senate district with the partisan voting tendencies of the state as a whole. (Foundation Press, 2022) by Samuel Issacharoff, Pamela S. Karlan, Richard H. Pildes, Nathaniel Persily, and Franita Tolson, Election Law in a Nutshell (2d ed., West Academic Publishing, 2017) Think of all the different districts that clock in at (old PVI of) R+3. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. Additionally, in Washingtons 13th Legislative District, Republican candidates won an average 64.73% of the two-party share in the 2012 presidential and gubernatorial elections, respectively.Comparing the average of those two results (64.73%) against the average statewide share of the same (45.43%), the district voted approximately 19 percentage points more Republican, or R+19.Following the presidential and gubernatorial elections, presidential and gubernatorial results are compiled to generate Hybrid Partisan Voting Index scores for statewide offices, congressional districts, and political districts or subdivisions including state legislative districts, counties, cities, and precincts. Cook provided the following explanation of a sample PVI in its 2017 PVI summary: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

Dr Alvarez Rheumatologist, John Hammergren Family, Articles C